80th Annual Midwest Political Science Association Conference
London School of Economics & University of Stavanger
If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases (Former Pres. Trump; June 15, 2020)
Figure 2: Posterior distribution of treatment effect parameter (\(\theta\)).
\(e^\theta = 0.683\), indicating a reduction of 31.7 percent in opposition to COVID-19 restrictions after infection.
Note: Full posterior distributions and plot traces are available in the Appendix D.
| Model 1 | Model 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| \(ATT (g,t)\) by dynamic aggregation | \(-3.555^{**}\) | |
| (1.4578) | ||
| \(ATT (g,t)\) by dynamic aggregation | \(-3.5443^{**}\) | |
| (1.508) | ||
| Control Group | Never treated | Not yet treated |
Note: Outcome variable is measured as a fraction and multiplied by 100. Mean expressed opposition from legislators in the control group (who were not infected with COVID-19) was about 10.06 percent, so a reduction of 3.5 percentage points indicates around a 35 percent decrease in the number of tweets expressing opposition.
Support: I will continue to lead our commonwealth as we navigate the federal, state, and local response to the health and economic impacts to the coronavirus. We must continue to practice social distancing to keep our nation and communities safe [Rep. Rob Wittman, May 28, 2020]
Opposition: The House has reinstated its draconian mask mandate once again. My amendment would end taxpayer funding for mask mandates in the capitol complex. Follow the science, no more mask mandates! [Rep. Bob Good, July 28, 2021]
Figure 2: COVID-19 Infection in US Legislators.